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Thread: From a Technical Standpoint Michelle's greatest potential program compared too...

  1. #1

    Default From a Technical Standpoint Michelle's greatest potential program compared too...

    I'm not a points man so i'm actually not that sure about how this would stack up. But I figured I would compare Michelle's GREATEST hopeful potential to say our current top skater Mao's greatest hopeful potential, and see how close they would be.

    Michelle Dream Program: Assuming there's maybe a loop...
    3lutz/3toe
    3loop
    3flip/2toe
    halfway
    3salchow
    3flip
    3lutz
    2axel/2toe/2loop
    This is an ambitious program for Michelle, but we're working in the realm of the hypathethical, and it is possible.

    Mao's Dream Program based of evidence of Previous programs
    3axel/2toe
    3axel
    2axel/3toe
    3flip/3loop
    halfway
    3lutz/2loop/2loop
    3lutz
    2axel
    I didn't include the Salchow because I don't think Mao has an immediate plans to train that jump.

    Let's assume that the best we can hope for with Michelle's other elements and potential: Level 4 Spiral sequence, Level 2 Layback, Level 4 FW, Level 3 spins. I think that's pretty much what she's capable of.

    Mao: Level 4 spiral, Level 4Layback spin, Level 3FW, Level 3spins.

    Now Looking to the PC marks: I think Mao would score amazing well in her transitions becuase she basically performs her triples out of very difficult steps and choreography. And she telegraphs nothing. Michelle's capable of good transitions, but she tends to use longer strokes than Mao to get into ther triples.

    Interpretation: All Michelle. She'd totally win for the mark, no questions asked.

    Choreography: They both have fabulous choreographers. So i think it'd be wash.

    Skating Skills:I think Michelle would edge out Mao ultimately for this because of her overall speed and flow across the ice.

    now taking all this into account. IF both skaters perform their dream program they they're capable of who wins and why?

  2. #2

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    Great imaginary scenario Nathan. I wish I had as much time on my hands.
    "When there's nothing left to lose, there's nothing left to fear" ~~~Bryan Adams

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nathan View Post
    now taking all this into account. IF both skaters perform their dream program they they're capable of who wins and why?
    I'm going to ask you what you asked me on that "You Raise Me Up" comparison thread -- do you know what board you're on?
    This sport doesn't know how lucky it is to have had her in it. ~ Dick Button on Michelle Kwan, A&E Biography, 2004

    Michelle is a rock star. ~ Frank Carroll, 2006

  4. #4

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    That's a total different discussion. That was "Whose artistic exhibition do you prefer and why" This is when both skaters are skating to their full potential whose got the edge? It involves actually analyzing the abilities of both skaters both technically and artistically and drawing a thought out conclusion.
    No offense but this is actually a real comparison question. Not just a praise invitation.

    I'll start...
    I think obviously no one can out jump Mao or get higher technical scores from her. But all things considered I think If Michelle skated to high enough technical merrit with that progam layout, should could possibly outscore MAo on the PC's in interpretation, skating skills, and execution and scrap a win. Though it could just as easily go the other way. It'd be fierce match up.

  5. #5

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    Michelle would win.
    Michelle is the best

  6. #6

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    I think the dream program for Mao has one too many jump combinations.

  7. #7

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    You are forgetting artistry, and that would take Michelle way over the top.

  8. #8

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    James is right that Mao's dream program has too many combos. Only three are allowed. This puts her in a little bit of a bind. If she wants to absolutely maximize her points, she must do two triple Axels, one in combination. So she must sacrifice either the 3T in her 2A+3T combo, or else the two 2-loops in her Lutz combo.

    Also, the way Nathan has it laid out, four of the seven jumping passes are Axels. I would hope that this would get dinged by the judges in the PCSs for not having a properly "balanced program."

    I think a Mao dream program would be more like this:

    3A 7.50
    3A+2T 11.50
    3F+3Lo 10.50
    3Lz* 6.60
    3T* 4.40
    2A* 3.63
    3Lz+2Lo+2Lo* 7.70

    Total 51.83

    For Michelle's dream program, I am quite willing to assume that there is a triple loop, but I'm not so sure about the 3Lz+3T. Suppose instead she goes

    3T+3T 8.00
    3Lo 5.00
    3Lz+2T 7.30
    3F* 6.05
    3S* 4.95
    3Lz* 6.60
    2A+2T+2Lo* 6.71

    Total 44.61

    Assuming that they are about equal in GOEs and in tech scores for non-jump elements (say 25 points apiece) that leaves Michelle about seven points to make up in program component scores.

    I can guarantee if Michelle came back in full health and delivered a clean seven triple progam with a triple-triple, her PCSs would be through the roof. Probably straight 9s.

    Mao's outstanding program at NHK -- this was pretty much the dream program in reality -- brought her PCSs in the 7.75-8.00 range. Give her straight 8.00s, this amounts to a total PCS score of 64.00 points.

    Michelle's 9.0s translate to 72.0.

    Michelle wins, 141.61 to 140.83 (both new all-time CoP records). Yay!!!!!!!!
    Wing Nut #1

  9. #9

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    Mathman, I like the way you think 9.0s for Michelle! Yay!


    Now can you do my Calculus homework.

  10. #10

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    MAo's actually been know to attempt 3/3/3 combinations. so i wouldn't put that past her to get the 3toe in there. Maybe even a 3lutz/2loop/3toe

    And mathaman, you were using Mao's realistic marks to a program that wasn't really a dream program, because she didn't land her 3axel perfectly an didn't attempt a second, to an idealistic program of Michelle's.

    So is it quite fair to say one would get 9.0's for a program she hasn't skated, and another would get 7.0-8.0's for a program that she HAS but wasn't really even her fullest.

    I think Mao's PC's scores would be closer to Michelle's than you have them listed as.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nathan View Post
    So is it quite fair to say one would get 9.0's for a program she hasn't skated,...
    Actually, the program I proposed is pretty much the program that she has skated in reality quite a few times in her career, except for the 2T+2Lo tacked on to the 2A. I don't think it is being fanciful to translate all those 6.0s into 9's.
    Wing Nut #1

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Actually, the program I proposed is pretty much the program that she has skated in reality quite a few times in her career, except for the 2T+2Lo tacked on to the 2A. I don't think it is being fanciful to translate all those 6.0s into 9's.
    I agree MM. I think 9's would be a very realistic number for so many of her performances.
    Do I hear 10?
    Keeper of Michelle's next masterpiece!!!

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by nymkfan51 View Post
    I agree MM. I think 9's would be a very realistic number for so many of her performances.
    Do I hear 10?
    Yes. 10!!!!!

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I don't think it is being fanciful to translate all those 6.0s into 9's.
    Now instead of chanting "6, 6, 6...." we can chant "9, 9, 9!" lol. I have no doubt that Michelle could handle that.
    “An Olympic gold medal would not have made us love or admire her more."


    "A gold medal can go in a case to be looked at from time to time, but a heart of gold is a rarity that enriches the world." ~ Susan Wessling, 2009

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    James is right that Mao's dream program has too many combos. Only three are allowed. This puts her in a little bit of a bind. If she wants to absolutely maximize her points, she must do two triple Axels, one in combination. So she must sacrifice either the 3T in her 2A+3T combo, or else the two 2-loops in her Lutz combo.

    Also, the way Nathan has it laid out, four of the seven jumping passes are Axels. I would hope that this would get dinged by the judges in the PCSs for not having a properly "balanced program."

    I think a Mao dream program would be more like this:

    3A 7.50
    3A+2T 11.50
    3F+3Lo 10.50
    3Lz* 6.60
    3T* 4.40
    2A* 3.63
    3Lz+2Lo+2Lo* 7.70

    Total 51.83

    For Michelle's dream program, I am quite willing to assume that there is a triple loop, but I'm not so sure about the 3Lz+3T. Suppose instead she goes

    3T+3T 8.00
    3Lo 5.00
    3Lz+2T 7.30
    3F* 6.05
    3S* 4.95
    3Lz* 6.60
    2A+2T+2Lo* 6.71

    Total 44.61

    Assuming that they are about equal in GOEs and in tech scores for non-jump elements (say 25 points apiece) that leaves Michelle about seven points to make up in program component scores.

    I can guarantee if Michelle came back in full health and delivered a clean seven triple progam with a triple-triple, her PCSs would be through the roof. Probably straight 9s.

    Mao's outstanding program at NHK -- this was pretty much the dream program in reality -- brought her PCSs in the 7.75-8.00 range. Give her straight 8.00s, this amounts to a total PCS score of 64.00 points.

    Michelle's 9.0s translate to 72.0.

    Michelle wins, 141.61 to 140.83 (both new all-time CoP records). Yay!!!!!!!!
    I really like your layout for Michelle, Mathman . . . it's a very well-balanced program for the jumps and like you posted, Michelle has done a similar layout for years, excluding the 2A-2t-2l so the familiarity and comfort of that plan would serve her well. Also, we have to consider the proven psychological make-up of Michelle and Mao. Mao has had a habit in the past of throwing her program away after she makes a mistake while Michelle has proven time and time again that she can forget one mistake, move on, and skate the rest of the program perfectly. Michelle has had years and years of experience on the senior major international scene and Mao has yet to skate in her 1st senior World Championship or an Olympic Games. Michelle knows what to expect when the pressure is on at the BIG events and she's dealt with it many times over. Whether or not Mao can do the same remains to be seen.

  16. #16

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    To me, there is not really much point in trying to compare skaters of different eras. Sonia Henie won 10 world championships, but her hardest trick was two single Axels in sequence.

    I expect that Mao Asada will win a slew of competitions and will set a lot of records along the way for highest CoP point totals. Under the New Judging System, a lady with a reliable triple Axel has the same advantage over the field that a man has with a quad. Not only do you get big points for that element, but also it gives you more options for the rest of the program and eliminates any Zayak problems.

    On the other hand, although it’s fun to construct imaginary “dream programs” for our favorite skaters, there is also that pesky “reality” to take into account. Maybe Mao will deliver a “dream program” this season and win the first of five World Championships and the first of 9 National Championships – and maybe not. But think what an astonishing accomplishment that would be if she did!

    In contrast, in Michelle’s case, when it comes to dream programs we do not have to imagine – we have our tapes.

    Pop in Salome, Taj Mahal, Rachmaninov, Lyra Angelica, East of Eden, Red Violin, Song of the Black Swan, Aranjuez, Tosca, …

    The best dreams are the ones that come true.
    Wing Nut #1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post



    In contrast, in Michelle’s case, when it comes to dream programs we do not have to imagine – we have our tapes.

    Pop in Salome, Taj Mahal, Rachmaninov, Lyra Angelica, East of Eden, Red Violin, Song of the Black Swan, Aranjuez, Tosca, …

    The best dreams are the ones that come true.
    Well said!
    Keeper of the "Wing-It Pose" from 98 Nats
    Keeper of Evan's kindness
    Keeper of Adam's "As it should be"..
    Co-keeper of John Coughlin's protective nature


    "....and in fact lived every moment of her life as if a child might be watching..."

    Christine Brennan on Michelle Kwan 2/12/06

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post

    In Michelle’s case, when it comes to dream programs we do not have to imagine – we have our tapes.

    Pop in Salome, Taj Mahal, Rachmaninov, Lyra Angelica, East of Eden, Red Violin, Song of the Black Swan, Aranjuez, Tosca, …

    The best dreams are the ones that come true.
    So true, Mathman! How fortunate we are to live in the age of video technology. Thanks to Michelle, we have seen many programs that are as close to perfection as we will likely ever see. What a benchmark she has set!

  19. #19

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    I just watched Mao's LP at NHK...IMO even though that LP one of the highest scoring of all time, it will, for me, never compare to MK's best LP's. I was totally bored.Don't get me wrong mao deserved to win, but...I don't know...something is missing in programs these days...
    Michelle is the best

  20. Default

    Thanks for the score comparison, Mathman. It's great to see she'd hold her own with Mao.

  21. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    To me, there is not really much point in trying to compare skaters of different eras. Sonia Henie won 10 world championships, but her hardest trick was two single Axels in sequence.

    I expect that Mao Asada will win a slew of competitions and will set a lot of records along the way for highest CoP point totals. Under the New Judging System, a lady with a reliable triple Axel has the same advantage over the field that a man has with a quad. Not only do you get big points for that element, but also it gives you more options for the rest of the program and eliminates any Zayak problems.

    On the other hand, although it’s fun to construct imaginary “dream programs” for our favorite skaters, there is also that pesky “reality” to take into account. Maybe Mao will deliver a “dream program” this season and win the first of five World Championships and the first of 9 National Championships – Ahhand maybe not. But think what an astonishing accomplishment that would be if she did!

    In contrast, in Michelle’s case, when it comes to dream programs we do not have to imagine – we have our tapes.

    Pop in Salome, Taj Mahal, Rachmaninov, Lyra Angelica, East of Eden, Red Violin, Song of the Black Swan, Aranjuez, Tosca, …

    The best dreams are the ones that come true.
    Ah a voice of reason and truth. Thanks Mathman great post.

  22. #22

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    I think Mao has a lovely short program this season. But when I watched her long program from NHK last night it was like watching a completely different skater from her short program that they replayed.

    Yes, the jumps are still there. But what comes from the inside is all but gone in her lp. I don't know if its the music she's not liking or what but it really is a remarkable contrast. And, it brings her very much down to earth with the rest of the ladies.

    It makes me wonder when the dream programs presented here for Mao will happen.
    I believe!

    I remain totally in AWE of Michelle Kwan.

    This season just hasn't been the same without her.


    I miss seeing her on the ice.
    I think I always will...
    IF...she steps onto it again
    Oh...my heart stand still....

    _________


  23. #23
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    FYI Nathan, Mao hasn't scored anything higher than a level 3 for her layback spin this season, and has received at least TWO level 1 laybacks this season as well. Automatically giving her a level 4 layback because she got a level 4 layback LAST season is incorrect of an assumption.

    Only one skater has pulled off a level 4 layback this season. It is one Yu-Na Kim. At least in the senior international ranks.
    "I also want millions of dollars & for Michelle to skate forever & world peace..."
    ~ aaronts

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    Michelle always wins
    Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what's right. ~Isaac Asimov

  25. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deetlebug View Post
    I think Mao has a lovely short program this season. But when I watched her long program from NHK last night it was like watching a completely different skater from her short program that they replayed.
    Her LP music, Czardas, is too fast for her. I think her choreographer, Lori Nichol, is deliberately pushing her out of her comfort zone this year.

    Plus, her LP has such a high level of technical content, with a triple Axel, a 2A+3T combo and a 3F+3Lo combo right off the bat. I think this takes all her concentration and she's like, please just let me land this triple Axel today and I'll worry about feeling the music tomorrow. (At Skate America she missed her triple Axel and her whole program collapsed.)

    So we'll have to wait and see. Anyway, dream program or blah, I think she will win the world champsionship this year. (JMO).
    Wing Nut #1

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